I join Mint editors and columnists in reviewing the best book I read in 2016 -- Dani Rodrik's "Economics Rules" in my case.

http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/1dWuTScBr7wFI3zAUM0YkN/What-we-read-in-2016.html

Much press coverage today of yesterday's NITI meeting chaired by PM Modi that I attended. Here's a representative sampling of articles.

http://indianexpress.com/article/business/economy/pm-modis-meeting-with-experts-prudent-public-spending-needed-to-deal-with-tax-evasion-4447942/

http://www.livemint.com/Politics/RrYXns2ov4QX4zsON2keQJ/Narendra-Modi-says-early-budget-will-expedite-release-of-fun.html

http://www.financialexpress.com/budget/discussed-cut-in-income-tax-rate-with-pm-narendra-modi-says-niti-aayogs-arvind-panagariya/488172/

http://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/Simplify-reduce-personal-income-tax-Economists/article16950714.ece

In today's Mint, Jagdish Bhagwati, Pravin Krishna, and I have a long essay on "Demonetisation Fallacies and Demonetisation Math".

http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/niFH9uM377oUSHEQcRuUWP/Demonetisation-fallacies-and-demonetisation-math.html

I'm mentioned (name misspelled) as one of the experts whom sources say have been invited to tomorrow's economic policy meeting chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

http://indianexpress.com/article/business/budget/pre-budget-talks-pm-modi-to-meet-economists-tuesday-cash-crunch-demonetisation-may-figure-4444951/

Very gratifying that an Indian Supreme Court judgement in a tax case cites research by Praveen Chakravarty and myself documenting widening regional disparities in India.

https://indiankanoon.org/doc/141946357/

I debunk some canards around the currency swap, in particular, those related to the alleged failure of a "fiscal bonanza".

http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/wjKydUxCNTQqPgOzVREpVI/The-many-canards-surrounding-currency-swap.html

I'm quoted in a recent Financial Express piece on some of the potential benefits from the currency swap in India.

http://www.financialexpress.com/money/why-rbis-small-step-towards-ekyc-is-a-giant-leap-for-digitising-finance/476018/

My latest Mint column suggests that the Modi government's currency swap is best understood as part of its larger program of modernizing the plumbing of the Indian political economy.

http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/ZC0RJhH1weVmSZsbN5zboI/Fixing-the-plumbingof-our-political-economy.html

Wide-ranging and informative conversation on the global economy with my estimable editor at Mint, Niranjan Rajadhyaksha, in conversation with Nobel economist Paul Krugman.

https://www.facebook.com/hindustantimes/videos/10154399103973580/

IDFC Institute publishes my briefing paper with Praveen Chakravarty on economic divergence among Indian states.

http://www.idfcinstitute.org/site/assets/files/10619/bp_curiouscase_economicdivergence_vdpc_231116_final.pdf

Delighted that Bibek Debroy refers to my critique of the Ambit report in his recent TV appearance on Karan Thapar's show.

https://twitter.com/IndiaToday/status/802153234253029376

My latest Mint column reflects on the case for sound money, historically, in the present, and looking forward.

http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/JBtzOt8bvyNolxggwwgvdK/The-case-for-sound-money.html

Ambit Capital Prediction of Sharp Drop in GDP Growth is a Joke

Ambit Capital Prediction of Sharp Drop in GDP Growth is a Joke

Vivek Dehejia

A widely publicized report (see here and here) by Ambit Capital has predicted a sharp drop in India’s GDP on the heels of the currency swap exercise. The report is available here.

These large estimates are at variance with other predictions and back of envelope or common sense predictions that the temporary drop in aggregate demand caused by the short run liquidity crunch might shave on the order of a quarter to a half percentage point of GDP growth over the relevant time horizon.

So what is going on?

The answer is that Ambit has completely changed the methodology by which they make predictions of GDP growth! They write:

In the light of the disruption caused by the demonetisation decision triggered by the Central Government on November 8, 2016 we suspend our current supply-side GDP model.

The model to replace it?

To quantify the impact of the demonetisation on GDP growth we rely on the ‘quantity theory of money’ (QTM).

One really doesn’t know whether to laugh or to cry. The QMT derives from the following accounting identity, known as the equation of exchange:

MV = PY

Basically, this says that the stock of money (M) multiplied by the velocity of its circulation (V) is identically equal (as a matter of accounting) to nominal GDP (PY), which may be broken into real GDP (Y) multiplied by the nominal price level (P).

This equation only becomes a theory if one assumes that one of the four components is fixed or is determined outside the equation. Thus, the usual interpretation of this equation in macroeconomics is that, when converted into growth rates, gives an estimate of long run inflation -- not of short run changes in GDP growth!

Thus if you assume that V is stationary in the long run and log differentiate the equation, you get the following:

% Change in M = %Change in P + %Change in Y

If you re-arrange, you get:

%Change in P = %Change in M - %Change in Y

In other words, assuming that velocity is stationary in the long run, the equation predicts that long run inflation is determined by the long run growth of the money supply once one adjusts for growth in real output.

Yet another interpretation is to take this as a basis for Milton Friedman’s “k percent” rule of classical monetarism. If you want to target growth in the monetary aggregate, and you would like (say) 2% inflation over time, then you should allow the money supply to grow at 2% plus whatever is the expected long run growth rate of real GDP.

Please note that nowhere in the above is the equation of exchange taken as a theory of real output determination in the short run! It may be seen as a short-cut theory of aggregate demand. In fact, in a research paper with my colleague Nicholas Rowe, published in 1998, we interpreted the equation in exactly this way. (See here.)

In a stylized theoretical model (that too, 1990s vintage!) it may be acceptable to use the equation of equation as a theory of aggregate demand, although that is not the current state of the art, which would employ some contemporary beefed up version of the textbook IS/LM or Mundell-Fleming model, or the optimizing DSGE type models.

The crux is this: Ambit gets its extreme predictions by an extreme and problematic modelling strategy, which is to throw out their supply side model, and assume that the dynamics of real output are entirely determined in the short run by the equation of exchange.

Thus, with a predicted sharp drop in the velocity of circulation, the “model”, if one even wants to call it that, predicts a sharp drop in real GDP, since, presumably, there is assumed to be no impact on the price level. Strictly speaking, though, note that their prediction should be of the impact on nominal GDP (PY), unless they assume absolutely rigid prices (P). In other words, even within their posited modelling framework, part of the predicted drop in nominal income may occur through a temporary drop in the nominal price level rather than drop in real GDP. They do not explain, so far as I could tell, why they assume all the action in their simplistic model comes from Y and not from P.

The bottom line: Ambit’s “model” from which their extreme prediction is derived is non-serious and would be laughed out of court by anyone serious about macroeconometric modelling of economic dynamics. It is frankly surprising that is has received so much play. Were it submitted to my upper division or graduate seminar, it would rate a B+ or so for effort.

Vivek Dehejia is an economics professor at Carleton University in Ottawa, Canada; a resident senior fellow at IDFC Institute in Mumbai; and a columnist, Mint. Follow him on Twitter @vdehejia.

Swarajya Magazine reprints my blog post on demonetization.

http://swarajyamag.com/business/heres-why-we-should-give-demonetisation-push-a-fair-chance

Demonetization: Fact and Fiction

Demonetization: Fact and Fiction

Vivek Dehejia

Ottawa, Canada, November 14, 2016

The past week has witnessed a series of surgical strikes on our common sense, with commentary on the government’s demonetization of high denomination currency notes ranging from claims that it is a political masterstroke for Prime Minister Narendra Modi to claims that it is political suicide, from claims that it will be a bonanza for the economy to claims that it will be a disaster. It’s high time to separate fact from fiction, and conjecture (well founded or ill) from propaganda.

First, given that the old 500 and 1,000 rupee notes are being replaced with new 500 and 2,000 rupee notes, what is involved is, in effect, a one time wealth tax on black money. To be more precise, this will be a one time tax on unaccounted cash held in high denomination notes, and therefore represent a partial attack on black money. After all, black money that has been converted from cash into gold, property, or other assets will be unaffected, or at any rate, unaffected directly. (A crash in property prices, induced by demonetization, will indirectly affect the wealth of those who have parked money, whether illicit or otherwise, in the property market.)

That having been said, it would be hard to deny that those with large stashes of unaccounted cash are going to take a hit in the short run, and it will take a period of months if not years for an equivalent stock of black money in the newly printed currency notes to be built up. Black money will take a hit, at least for a while, and that cannot be a bad development.

Second, the costs of demonetization are the short run adjustment costs caused by a liquidity crunch during the transition period in which old notes are swapped for new notes. These are, literally, the shoe leather costs first year economics textbooks write about -- the cost of waiting in a queue to exchange or deposit legitimate stocks of old currency notes. There should be limited or no medium or long run effect on the level of aggregate demand in the economy, a bizarre claim being put out there even by some well known economists who ought to know better.

Thus, celebrated economist Kaushik Basu is quoted in the Financial Times as saying that the demonetization plan is a “very risky correction of money supply” and is likely to cause a drop in aggregate demand and thereby lead to slower growth. This is very puzzling indeed, considering that India now operates under a monetary policy regime known as inflation targeting, a fact which Basu most certainly knows. Thus, if a portion of the stock of high powered money is destroyed by some of the high denomination notes being burned -- literally or metaphorically -- the incipient drop in M1 can be fully offset by open market operations of the Reserve Bank of India. In more technical terms, the RBI, can, to a first approximation, fully “sterilize” the monetary effects of that demonetized currency which is “burned” and not deposited or exchanged for new notes.

More fundamentally, in a world of inflation targeting, unlike the world of the first year textbooks that Basu seems to have in mind, the money supply is endogenous, as the policy instrument is the central bank’s policy rate -- in India the repo rate, not adjustments to the money stock or its growth rate. Thus, in terms of our textbook analytics, the LM curve is horizontal at the central bank’s chosen interest rate, rather than vertical at a policy-determined money stock. The intersection of this horizontal LM curve with the downward-sloping IS curve determines the level of aggregate demand, at a given nominal price level. There is no role here for demonetization to play.

Third, armchair analysts of the short run impacts of demonetization have in some cases succumbed to a very basic confusion, that between a one time change in the price level and the rate of price inflation. Suppose that, because of changed consumer and producer behaviour, there is a one time shock to the price level. This level effect has no effects on the medium and long term rate of inflation, which is a function of the underlying growth in the stock of money, which, in turn, is a function of the central bank’s policy interest rate as determined by its inflation targeting policy framework. This confusion between levels and growth rates equally infects discussion of the Goods and Services Tax, in which it is wrongly argued that inflation will be the result when what is meant is a one time change in the price level.

Fourth, the beneficial effects of demonetization in the longer run are likely to be an increase in financial inclusion, as more of the unbanked are goaded to enter the financial system, and this can only be a good thing. Relatedly, to the extent that those inconvenienced during the liquidity crunch of the transition switch over permanently to debit and credit cards and electronic payments, the economy’s reliance on cash will diminish, although it will by no means disappear (nor should it, for that matter).

Fifth, and last, a long run solution to the problem of black money must tackle it at its source, and that means dealing with hot potato issues such as election finance.

Bottom line: Demonetization is likely to have some good effects, and its bad effects are overhyped by critics who either do not understand monetary economics or perhaps have a vested interest in seeing the laudable efforts of the government to crack down on black money fail. Let us give this a chance.

Vivek Dehejia is economics professor at Carleton University in Canada; resident senior fellow at IDFC Institute in Mumbai; and columnist, Mint, India. He may be reached at vdehejia@gmail.com.

In a special Mint column, I argue that Trump may represent a return to the Mundell-Laffer policy mix ("Reaganomics") -- fiscal expansion, monetary tightening, and regulatory reform.

http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/LY0HLSBI149I9utUZjMg6J/A-return-to-Reaganomics.html

Writing in Open Canada, James Dean and I argue that, contrary to what we've been told, there's good reason to expect a productive bilateral partnership between the US and Canada under Trump and Trudeau.

https://www.opencanada.org/features/odd-couple-how-trudeau-can-find-common-ground-trump-even-trade/

I speak to the BBC on India's demonetization of high denomination currency notes, disagreeing with the doomsday scenario put out there by well known economists, who ought to know better.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-37970965

My latest Mint column, "Free trade's false friends", argues that corporate interests masquerade as free traders while academic economists remain on the sidelines.

http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/sxBFCGmmIogQ7pqm1XuFsN/Free-trades-false-friends.html

A link to the 2002 lecture at Carleton by Bob Mundell which I organized -- video and edited PDF text both available.

https://sites.google.com/site/vdehejia/mundelllecture

My latest Mint column analyzes the distortions caused by AE negative policy rates and the unconvincing arguments made in their favour by well known economists.

http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/EufRHPlpi4yICIH1Qq6W2I/The-koolaid-of-negative-rates.html

In Mint, Pravin Krishna and I argue that India ought not to rescind MFN trade status for Pakistan and we explore the history of this under the GATT.

http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/9STwlZgFdizLs5s1ZAn1zO/Leave-Pakistans-MFN-status-intact.html

My latest Mint column shares my take aways from a recent conference on trade policy issues today, at Columbia University, organized by Professor Jagdish Bhagwati.

http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/XMLZoRbGChlm88qUR0PdpK/Jagdish-Bhagwati-and-trade-issues-today.html

In a special Mint column, my co-author and friend James Dean and I argue that, to achieve multiple goals, central banks are in need of new tools.

http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/Cb9F5I4de7qI81jaayHezL/Central-bankers-need-new-tools.html

My latest Mint on Sunday Economics Express explores the "Rajan hypothesis" on the harmful effects of advanced economy unconventional monetary policies on the emerging economies.

http://www.livemint.com/Sundayapp/q56lSUXO0V6fE23jXhlt3L/Capital-flows-and-the-Raghuram-Rajan-hypothesis.html

My latest Mint column, in print on Monday, looks at the difficult problem of how to exit from unconventional monetary policies.

http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/Okcvbrf03qjRcvNiONZ9BL/No-exit-unconventional-monetary-policies.html

My latest, a special extra column for Mint, argues the case for the proposed reforms to higher medical education in India proposed by the Panagariya committee.

http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/yrbKxfABKqc1CiDV6OcEkM/Arvind-Panagariya-is-right-MCI-must-go.html

The editorial in today's Mint, on growing federal fault lines in India, draws on new research by Praveen Chakravarty and myself published recently as an IDFC Institute briefing paper.

http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/m8dMKK12E1qLmtLmBg1zTN/Indias-growing-federal-fault-lines.html

My latest for Mint is the third in a triptych of pieces on the paradoxes and discontents of globalization, and helps to launch the new broadsheet format on Monday, September, 12, 2016.

http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/bBMBjP7Vk1xfdNGDRqExxM/Globalization-paradoxes-redux.html

A new briefing paper by Praveen Chakravarty and myself on the divergence in income per capita among India's states post-liberalization and the challenges it poses to the country's federal polity.

http://www.idfcinstitute.org/site/assets/files/10331/indias_curious_case_of_economic_divergence.pdf

Writing in the Hindu, Praveen Chakravarty and I document the rising divergence in income per capita among India's states post-liberalization.

http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/praveen-chakravarty-vivek-dehejia-writes-on-gst-bill-the-gap-between-rich-and-poor-states/article9072719.ece

I speak to El Pais about the succession of Urjit Patel as new governor of the Indian central bank to replace Raghuram Rajan. [Spanish]

http://economia.elpais.com/economia/2016/09/03/actualidad/1472922696_511269.html

My latest Economics Express (Mint on Sunday) explores the roots of inflation in India in the context of the new inflation targeting regime.

http://www.livemint.com/Sundayapp/nWV9n2mle4QboagcYO5XSK/The-roots-of-inflation-in-India.html

My take on the wise choice of Urjit Patel as the next governor of the Reserve Bank of India, in Mint on the webpage and in print in India.

http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/MysybUj83mq5A4trjDYUEP/Coraggio-governor-Patel.html

James Dean and I, writing in Canada's Globe and Mail, argue that we free traders need to make a more nuanced and sophisticated case for globalization, and not sweep the genuine grievances of losers under the rug.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rob-commentary/by-ignoring-free-trades-excesses-we-lost-those-on-the-margins/article31582106/

I speak to Siddharth Singh, editor at large at Open magazine, about the incoming governor of the RBI, Urjit Patel.

http://www.openthemagazine.com/article/business/urjit-patel-governor-s-rule

I speak to Radio Canada International (RCI) on the state of India-Canada bilateral relations.

http://www.rcinet.ca/en/2016/08/22/canada-warm-foreign-relations-with-india/

I speak to the BBC about the incoming governor of the Reserve Bank of India, Urjit Patel.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-37153380

I speak to the Financial Times on the appointment of Urjit Patel as new governor of the Reserve Bank of India.

https://www.ft.com/content/eb71aa76-66e7-11e6-ae5b-a7cc5dd5a28c

Mint, among others, has called the adoption of an inflation targeting monetary policy regime Raghuram Rajan's signal accomplishment as RBI governor. My latest Mint column assesses the pros and cons of this system, in general, and in the Indian context in particular.

http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/sBvcmx3LvdmXo9HDr9CIcN/The-currency-question.html

A video of my recent talk at the India Economic Seminar in Bangalore, on the rise of the "new protectionism", organized by Indic Academy/Swarajya Magazine. [video]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qLuXQvQp1ww

In today's Mint on Sunday, I drill down into the "de-industrialization" thesis of Rodrik, Subramanian, and Cowen, and relate it to older debates going back to Kaldor in the 1960s and my own work with Bhagwati in the 1990s.

http://www.livemint.com/Sundayapp/UZ4Gyf1IzqR0i6IqoiZ1PJ/Can-India-develop-without-industrialization.html

Soutik Biswas of BBC writes on India's historic new GST and quotes several economists including yours truly.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-36950205

My latest Mint column, "Is globalism dead?", looks at the possible retreat of globalization in the era of Trump, Sanders, and Brexit.

http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/6xyjobypNoxX2fqFWorVVN/Is-globalism-dead.html

My latest Mint column, "The Genius of Robert Mundell", reflects on the recently concluded Santa Colomba Conference 2016.

http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/bWVEQ1NhqXOK77R0ftTkGK/The-genius-of-Robert-Mundell.html

My latest Economics Express in Mint on Sunday analyzes the slowing convergence in GDP per capita between emerging and advanced economies.

http://www.livemint.com/Sundayapp/v0EjJDoHA0XZyOIUYjM7CI/Convergence-A-marathon-not-a-sprint.html

In today's Hindustan Times, Reuben Abraham and I make a pragmatist's case for a limited state: maximum governance needs minimum government, we argue.

http://www.hindustantimes.com/analysis/minimum-government-maximum-governance-a-manifesto-for-a-limited-state/story-IL1g53NZYoGEBCD83fu9SJ.html

Yours truly in conversation with Arvind Panagariya at IDFC Institute, discussing the political economy of reforms in India and, in particular, the reforms agenda of the current Indian government. [YouTube]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jFDM1inV_BM

I reflect on Brexit and contrast this to the pragmatic, non-ideologically driven, approach to liberal economic reforms in India.

http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/WCGfirz5TLfXRT21TEtIAM/Indias-pragmatic-liberalism.html

A brief video with the Institute of Policy Studies (Colombo) where I speak on the benefits of a granular ease of doing business survey which speaks to enterprises on the ground.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gZzTB8Yk4w

The Daily FT (Sri Lanka) carries a story on my recent talk to the Institute of Policy Studies on improving the ease of doing business in India and Sri Lanka.

http://www.ft.lk/article/549961/Good-economic-policy-is-good-politics--Top-Indian-economist

Here is a report in the IPS (Colombo) website: http://www.ips.lk/index.php/8-news/1339-lecture-on-improving-the-ease-of-doing-business-in-a-federal-polity-ips-auditorium-june-16-2016

I speak about economic reforms, Rexit, and other topics on a video podcast with the good folks at MYIND.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N8NXlCIf5iw

Kevin Carmichael in the Financial Post (Canada) writes on #Rexit, quoting, inter alia, yours truly.

http://www.financialpost.com/m/wp/news/blog.html?b=business.financialpost.com/investing/global-investor/what-raghuram-rajans-departure-from-the-reserve-bank-of-india-says-about-the-role-of-the-central-banker&pubdate=2016-06-20

My take on l'affaire Rajan, an extra column today in Mint.

http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/waMeI8dMCbNoNxzOA0dXEM/Time-to-put-the-Rajan-affair-behind.html

The FT in Sri Lanka has a piece on my upcoming talk on improving the ease of doing business, which takes place on Thursday in Colombo.

http://www.ft.lk/article/548144/Top-Indian-expert-to-speak-on-improving-ease-of-doing-biz-at-IPS-Forum-on-Thursday

My latest "Mint on Sunday" long read explores in depth the Cochrane-DeLong dispute on whether pro-business reforms are also pro-growth and applies the debate to an Indian context.

http://mintonsunday.livemint.com/news/is-pro-business-reform-necessarily-pro-growth/1.0.4019102376.html

Siddharth Singh speaks to me and other commentators in a fine piece on Modi's reform challenges.

http://www.openthemagazine.com/article/india/economic-reforms-the-growth-and-gloom-story

"Demonizing Donald Trump won’t work" -- my latest Mint column on the liberal blindspot when it comes to the insurgent Republican presidential candidate.

http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/I3O5lNwvse3GgdaYlb5TaJ/Demonizing-Donald-Trump-wont-work.html

Wherein I join other Mint columnists and opine on what each of us thought was the Modi government's defining moment in the past year.

http://www.livemint.com/Politics/DLNRPEXD6o0qOHJ8unpRpL/What-the-experts-think-of-the-Modi-governments-track-record.html

"Congress's long goodbye"? My latest Mint column shares my reflections on the recent assembly elections and what they augur for the BJP and the Congress.

http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/tHWEblrDQCjTcojpT0rJYM/Congresss-long-goodbye.html

My latest Economics Express for Mint analyzes an emerging debate on why capital flows to emerging economies have slowed and whether we need a new global monetary order a la Bretton Woods.

http://mintonsunday.livemint.com/news/why-have-capital-flows-to-emerging-markets-slowed-down/1.0.2853388943.html

Friends, this is the archived video of today's very lively debate on "Modinomics at Two" at the AEI, moderated by Sadanand Dhume, with yours truly, Milan Vaishnav of Carnegie, and others.

http://www.aei.org/events/modinomics-at-two-is-it-working-for-india-and-its-citizens/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=fdpevent

My latest for Mint analyzes the NITI document which proposes that India could be a $10 trillion economy by 2032.

http://bit.ly/21LzskN

Delighted and honoured to be featured in Open Magazine's "Open Minds 2016" list of influential Indians, in distinguished company indeed here.

http://www.openthemagazine.com/article/india/open-minds-2016-public-square#page11

Friends in DC, I will be speaking as part of a distinguished panel on "Modinomics at Two" at the American Enterprise Institute on May 10. The event will also be live streamed and video archived. Do join us!

http://www.aei.org/events/modinomics-at-two-is-it-working-for-india-and-its-citizens/

My latest Mint column points to the centrality of a winning narrative in successful election campaigns, whether Reagan or Modi.

http://bit.ly/21aRcFV

In today's Mint on Sunday, I assess the debate sparked by Robert Gordon's new book claiming that the era of high productivity growth is over.

http://mintonsunday.livemint.com/news/can-an-economy-grow-forever/1.0.1651578667.html

In today's Mint, I argue that, in a world of excessive and destabilizing volatility in capital flows and exchange rates, it is high time to give serious consideration to Robert Mundell's proposal for a single global currency.

http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/9NwJ0lNsunbdXyQkKJjQJL/Time-for-a-world-currency.html

In today's Mint, I argue that Indian PM Modi is best understood as a pragmatic modernizer of the economy rather than a textbook "economic reformer".

http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/B7lPnKUi863p68gNziYnVN/Modinomics-at-two.html

In Mint on Sunday, I take a deep dive into secular stagnation, negative interest rates, and helicopter drops.

http://mintonsunday.livemint.com/news/what-explains-the-great-global-slowdown/1.0.507010461.html

My latest for Mint argues that India should "swipe right" for genuine free trade, not for Trojan-horse so-called trade deals like TPP.

http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/jC2FC1IvE3AMlGfAVO4CbP/Swipe-right-for-free-trade.html

My initial reaction to Union Budget 2015-16, live now, and in print tomorrow in Mint. In a word, my main takeaway is Jaitley sticking to the fiscal consolidation target, which make sense; but he will need to convince the sceptics that his fiscal maths add up.

http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/BM242n5faKn7XsxE68RgsO/Union-budget-Show-me-the-money.html

The Economic Survey 2015-16 has a whole chapter devoted to tax/GDP! Building on a recent special column with Praveen, my latest Mint piece dissects the ES's claim that India isn't an outlier, and points to 1991 as a year of a structural break.

http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/vjSlh6i79zBZHlJtZ4vVsO/Tax-to-GDP-ratio-redux.html

The estimable Kevin Carmichael, writing on "Pikettymania" in India, picks up my recent Mint column, inter alia.

https://www.cigionline.org/blogs/kevin-carmichaels-observer/pikettymania-arrives-india#.Vsvb5hKfeqY.twitter

In this extra Mint piece, my IDFC Institute colleague, Praveen Chakravarty, and I argue that India's tax to GDD ratio, and share of direct to indirect taxes, is skewed, looking at data and also economic theory.

http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/brbD6Tw1akpGS3um0t3CaM/India-is-an-outlier-in-its-tax-policy.html

In Mint, on-line now and in print on Monday, I argue that Piketty's prescription that India should reduce inequality is the wrong policy priority for India at this time. The fight at this time must be against poverty -- a matter of absolute deprivation -- not inequality, a matter of relative deprivation, and that can only be accomplished by focusing on achieving a high and sustainable growth rate.

http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/jcf01cYBfeW3Pn8jweh8JP/The-wrong-priority-for-India.html

In Mint on Sunday, I explore the roots of the "new protectionism", and trace it to the 1992 US presidential campaign, and the "trade and wages" debate, in which Jagdish Bhagwati and I, among others, were interlocutors.

http://mintonsunday.livemint.com/news/the-return-of-trade-protectionism/2.4.4225549255.html

My latest Mint column, in print today, argues that the US was conceived by its founders as an oligarchic republic, not a democracy, and vestiges remain today -- most notably, in the arcane selection process for the US President. Those who say Trump or Sanders are "unfit to govern" might as well say they prefer oligarchy to democracy.

http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/G6id6XYcJUqlMLSWP9IQJP/The-truth-of-democracy.html

In today's Mint on Sunday, I offer a detailed, research-based critique of the proposed widespread use of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in economics and public policy.

http://mintonsunday.livemint.com/news/the-experimental-turn-in-economics/2.4.3926705564.html

Delighted to be co-leading a major new research project, joint between NITI Aayog, Government of India, and the IDFC Institute, on improving the ease of doing business in India.

http://www.business-standard.com/article/pti-stories/niti-aayog-idfc-institute-to-conduct-survey-on-ease-of-biz-116011700609_1.html

In Mint, I argue that imposing restrictions on who is eligible to stand for office is corrosive of the democratic principle itself.

http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/hEQyvGVO7VHh96NYRlMUoK/Testing-direct-democracy.html

James Dean and I in conversation on the "paradoxes of debt". (YouTube, 15 mins)

https://youtu.be/BGgH7VNW3U4

Friend and co-author James Dean speaks on three "paradoxes of [sovereign] debt" at an IDFC Institute roundtable seminar I moderated recently in Mumbai. [YouTube, 1''08"]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=piV3-zUAyXE

In a letter to the editor of the Economist, Rajeev Dehejia and I criticize an overly enthusiastic leader on using RCTs in public policy, and point to their methodological limitations -- in particular, the statistical issue of "external validity" or "generalizability".

http://www.economist.com/news/letters/21685429-letters-editor

Incisive long read by the estimable Siddharth Singh, the virtues of going gradual, on the Modi government's economic reforms. Yours truly is cited, arguing for gradualism in preference to "shock therapy" or "big bang" reforms.

http://www.openthemagazine.com/article/nation/mocapitalism-2016